BUFFALO BILLS

2005 Record: 5-11
CJ's Team Rank: 31

THE CHARLES JAY LINE
To win Super Bowl: 250-1
To win AFC East: 10-1
Total Wins: Under 5.5 -115, Over 5.5 +105

The Bills open the 2006 season with a lot of problems to resolve, not the least of which is confusion. This franchise has had continual coaching turnover, and in an effort to bring some stability to the situation, hired its greatest coach ever, Marv Levy, as GM for Football Operations. The new coach is Dick Jauron, former Chicago coach and Yale alum, giving Buffalo a touch of the Ivy League (Levy is a Harvard grad).

Buffalo has a couple of potent offensive weapons in wide receiver Lee Evans (48 catches, 7 TD's) and Willis McGahee (1247 yds., 3.8 ypc). Who will eventually wind up taking snaps from center is another issue. J.P. Losman will probably go into the season as the starter, because the Bills made a major investment in him as a #1 draft choice in 2004. But Losman completed less than 50% of his passes, and Jauron may turn to veteran Kelly Holcomb, who has proven himself capable but is more or less a career backup. The darkhorse here might be Craig Nall, who spent a few years in Green Bay as Brett Favre's backup before being moved out in favor of Aaron Rodgers last year.

Whoever is the QB, he will face the problem of defenses having the luxury of double-covering Evans, because there is not a lot of balance in the passing attack. The offensive line needs a lot of work, especially if Losman, who is going to need the protection, gets most of the playing time.

The Bills' defense collapsed last season, allowing opponents to convert almost 47% on third down. The biggest problem was in stopping opposition rushing attacks, and that will be hard to resolve. There are encouraging signs, however; the linebacking corps has to be considered an area of strength, and it will be even more so if Takeo Spikes is able to successfully come off surgery on his Achilles tendon. The secondary can get the job done. Nate Cummings and Terrence McGee (also a great kick returner) are solid at the corners, and there is the veteran presence of former Pro Bowler Troy Vincent at safety. Donte Whitmer, a promising athlete, was drafted in the first round out of Ohio State.

There is an upside in Buffalo, to be sure. It is not unreasonable to expect that the defense will turn in a better performance. The conundrum at QB may yet work itself out; Jauron's decision may revolve around whether he wants to use Holcomb to give him a better chance to win now or develop Losman for the long term. Like Holcomb, Jauron is kind of a retread, as he compiled a 35-46 record as head coach of the Bears. Essentially, this year the team is installing Tampa Bay's defense and St. Louis' offense. Will it make a difference?