2005 Record: 4-12
CJ'S Team Rank: 32
THE CHARLES JAY LINE
To win Super Bowl:500-1
To win NFC West: 25-1
Total Wins: Under 4.5 -120, Over 4.5 +110
The Niners had to win their last two games of the season to post a 4-12 mark, constituting perhaps a bit of overachievement relative to their level of personnel. This year a number of veterans have departed, including Julian Peterson, Fred Beasley, Ahmed Plummer and Brandon Lloyd. Coach Mike Nolan is going with the youth movement, and he's pinning his future hopes (and likely his job future as well) on second-year quarterback Alex Smith, the league's #1 draft choice in 2005, who needs to improve his abysmal stats by leaps and bounds for San Francisco to make any advances.
Smith threw for just one touchdown last year, and committed 22 turnovers (11 INT's, 11 fumbles), a rough indoctrination that was a by-product, in part, of the people he had around him. The Niners were very thin at wide receiver, and the offensive line had problems. Frank Gore (4.8 ypc) represents the possibility of a very respectable running game, but he had shoulder surgery in the off-season and needs to demonstrate that he can come back strong. Kevin Barlow (581 yards) is also around, but he rushed for just 3.3 yards per carry.
The key guy in the offense this year could be rookie tight end Vernon Davis (Maryland), a first-round draft choice who blew everyone away at the NFL scouting combine. The offensive line has some promise, and has added future Hall of Famer Larry Allen at the left guard position. But execution killed this team last season, as it scored just 17 offensive touchdowns while converting just 24% on third down. Nolan hopes that rookie running back Michael Robinson, a QB at Penn State, might add some spice and versatility to the attack.
The defense ranked last in the league, giving up 391 yards per game. Bryant Young had no sacks in the last nine games of the season. Peterson and Plummer are gone. The Niners put very little pressure on the quarterback, which put a lot of pressure on the secondary, which was also worst in the NFL against the pass. Second-round pick Manny Lawson, a linebacker who played with Mario Williams at N.C. State,is expected to help the pass rush.
San Francisco has a long way to go. In 2005, the team was outgained by more yards than any other team since the 1970 merger. No matter how much Smith struggles, it is doubtful he'll be benched in favor of veteran Trent Dilfer because Nolan wants to commit himself to the development of the young signal-caller. So the Forty-Niners could very well take a step back before taking steps forward.
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