NCAA Basketball Early Action

November 11th, 2010

The college basketball season has tipped off, and some of the larger school teams (Maryland, #4 Pittsburgh, #16 Illinois, and #25 Texas) are looking at match-ups with smaller teams to get an early start on padding the season record.  The b-ball action gets underway in earnest this weekend when Vegas sportsbooks will have as many as 52 games on the board, which will include 5 tournaments.  #1 Duke will make their season opener against Princeton this weekend.

The early season games are usually a favorite time for the sharpest of Sharps in college hoops due mainly to the ratings for each team changing at rapid-fire pace as every game is played… fast action with hopefully easy money.  Of course there are not a lot of statistics to go by at this point, other than looking back at the previous season, returning players, and guess-timations on how new recruits will bring their game.  This makes it tough on the odds makers at first, and where the Sharps take advantage with betting their opinions against the larger perceived errors on the giant smorgasbord of games in play.

With 347 Division I NCAA basketball teams, the odds makers have to find a means to place a rating on the action, and it’s nearly impossible to maintain consistent accuracy.  About 25% of the games will be out of synch with accurate ratings.  The smaller schools and mid-major teams are usually overlooked and undervalued, particularly when matched up against the larger, ranked teams.  These first few weeks will show a lot of line movement and shuffling on the games as the sportsbooks begin their reactions off the more reputable Sharps.  Judging by what the original line is, movement can be as much as two points off a one limit wager. Sometimes it’s not a bad idea to follow along with the shifts, but don’t get to the window, or click too late as the opening value may soon be gone on the adjusted line.

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