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NCAA Basketball Early Action

November 11th, 2010

The college basketball season has tipped off, and some of the larger school teams (Maryland, #4 Pittsburgh, #16 Illinois, and #25 Texas) are looking at match-ups with smaller teams to get an early start on padding the season record.  The b-ball action gets underway in earnest this weekend when Vegas sportsbooks will have as many as 52 games on the board, which will include 5 tournaments.  #1 Duke will make their season opener against Princeton this weekend.

The early season games are usually a favorite time for the sharpest of Sharps in college hoops due mainly to the ratings for each team changing at rapid-fire pace as every game is played… fast action with hopefully easy money.  Of course there are not a lot of statistics to go by at this point, other than looking back at the previous season, returning players, and guess-timations on how new recruits will bring their game.  This makes it tough on the odds makers at first, and where the Sharps take advantage with betting their opinions against the larger perceived errors on the giant smorgasbord of games in play.

With 347 Division I NCAA basketball teams, the odds makers have to find a means to place a rating on the action, and it’s nearly impossible to maintain consistent accuracy.  About 25% of the games will be out of synch with accurate ratings.  The smaller schools and mid-major teams are usually overlooked and undervalued, particularly when matched up against the larger, ranked teams.  These first few weeks will show a lot of line movement and shuffling on the games as the sportsbooks begin their reactions off the more reputable Sharps.  Judging by what the original line is, movement can be as much as two points off a one limit wager. Sometimes it’s not a bad idea to follow along with the shifts, but don’t get to the window, or click too late as the opening value may soon be gone on the adjusted line.

College Football Week 10 Betting Insights

November 2nd, 2010

The story is unfolding, and the leaders are coming forth for the 2010-11 College Football Season.  Michigan State and Missouri can be dismissed from the race due to recent losses.  Those losing events practically eliminate the Big 12 and Big 10 conferences from a chance to earn a spot in the BCS title game.  We’re looking at the remaining five undefeated teams to run that race with perhaps the one loss Alabama back in the running.  While Auburn creamed Mississippi, Oregon’s road win over USC jumped the Ducks to numero uno in the BCS polls.

The stats will be watered down even more this week when we see TCU on the road at Utah for a Mountain West match-up of unbeaten gridiron action.  Utah had a difficult time with Air Force last week, while TCU looked very good against UNLV.  This could bring out the best in both teams, but look for TCU to take the win.  The question is, however, how much of a boost will either team receive in the BCS rankings with a win?  If we see TCU win over Utah, they should hold firmly on to the No. 3 position until Auburn or Oregon suffers a loss.  If Utah wins with an upset, which would certainly boost them up the ranks, but they have nowhere to go.  Utah is currently at the 5th ranked slot with an average that is far behind Boise State.  Throw into the mix a win by Bama over LSU, and the BCS computer is going to have a field day, which just might boost the SEC team up higher than the MW Utah team.  Look for Boise State to struggle this week with a tough visiting Hawaii team (7-2) for a major WAC battle.

If you’re anticipating this season’s race for the Heisman Trophy, here are a few of the major contenders.  LaMichael James is also looking good, and has been cranking out some major yardage with a total of 1,210 and 14 touchdowns.  Newton continues to impress with 239 yards, 3 touchdowns (2 passing, one receiving – the stuff that Heisman voters drool over) during his last game against USC.  Las Vegas can’t offer odds on this voted event, but odds makers are making Cameron Newton a serious -500 favorite with low limits for fear of being slammed on too cheap a price.  Looking at the stats, Newton has all the cards and the trophy is his to lose at this point.

Week 10 Heisman Trophy Top 5 Contenders

Cameron Newton – Auburn

LaMichael James – Oregon

Kellen Moore – Boise State

Andrew Luck – Stanford

Robert Griffin III – Baylor

Other possible contenders to watch:

Denard Robinson – Michigan

Taylor Martinez – Nebraska

Ricky Stanzi – Iowa

Terrell Prior – Ohio State