BUFFALO (+9.5) at NEW ENGLAND --

J.P. Losman's pre-season stats show he completed 67% of his passes. Of course, pre-season is a lot different from the regular season. Losman made four road starts in 2005, during which time his Buffalo Bills scored 43 points. And in a home game against the Patriots in December, he completed 10 of 27 passes with three interceptions in a 35-7 defeat. It may be a stretch to say he won the QB job by default, but Kelly Holcomb didn't put up much of a contest. Losman might be more mature this season, but he doesn't have as much of a receiving corps (Eric Moulds is gone). Meanwhile, New England comes into the season opener unusually thin in the passing game. Tom Brady could probably make things work under any circumstances, but New England's top two wideouts from last year are not available (David Givens is elsewhere, Deion Branch is holding out). Chad Jackson, the second-round draft choice, is not close to 100%. Things got to the point where the Pats had to make a deal to get Doug Gabriel from the Raiders. So one might expect Brady to go to his running game, which is bolstered with the arrival of talented rookie Lawrence Maroney. That will kill some clock. New England's defense also gets a boost with word that Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi should be in action.

THE PLAY: UNDER 41 ****

NEW YORK JETS (+3) at TENNESSEE --

Yes, there is a quarterback controversy in Nashville. Is it an embarrassment of riches, or an embarrassment in terms of confusion? Kerry Collins, acquired just a few weeks ago, will get the start; Vince Young, the big-time rookie, will possibly play a series in each half (he had 6.2 yards a carry in pre-season), and Billy Volek sits while he waits to be dealt. Yes, Volek is probably the best of the three right now, but Collins has always put up some numbers. And word out of the Titans' camp is that he's picked up Norm Chow's offense quickly. Chad Pennington, off an injury, can usually keep the Jets in games, but he won't have a good supporting cast to work with. The offensive line is rebuilt and should experience growing pains, while the running game, without Curtis Martin, will use a committee headed by Kevan Barlow and Cedric Houston. That's not as promising as Chris Brown and Travis Henry on the other side (LenDale White may or may not play). For the Jets, there are more problems. The receivers aren't scary. Finding a pass rush in the new 3-4 alignment will be tough with John Abraham gone (Shaun Ellis had just 2.5 sacks last year). Thirty-five year-old Eric Mangini is still finding himself as a head coach, having created a QB battle between Pennington and Patrick Ramsey when none should have existed, and putting players through practices which may be too excruciating. Right now Tennessee looks a little further along than this New York crew, though that may change during the season. On the technical side, the Jets have covered just four of their last 18 as a road dog.

THE PLAY: TENNESSEE ***

DALLAS (+1)at JACKSONVILLE--

Yes, on the surface there look to be some problems with the Jaguars. With Jimmy Smith gone, they really don't have any receivers who are too scary. Matt Jones is big and fast, but he's not going to "out-quick" a lot of cornerbacks. Byron Leftwich, who takes forever to get rid of the ball, could be vulnerable to a Cowboy pass rush that registered 37 sacks last year and will be improved. All-Pro defensive tackle Marcus Stroud will not play, leading tackler Mike Peterson is banged up, and cornerback Brian Williams was arrested for DUI last week. On top of that, tight end Mercedes Lewis, who the Jags were counting on to provide an outlet for Leftwich, may not see action. There's a flip side, though. Dallas coach Bill Parcells was worried enough about his offensive line that he used backup QB Tony Romo exclusively in one pre-season game because of Romo's ability to evade a pass rush. Problem is, Romo has never thrown an NFL pass. That leaves Dallas with Drew Bledsoe, who has cement shoes in the pocket, and could be fair game for a Jacksonville pass rush that had 47 sacks in 2005. For a struggling offensive line, the Jags are particularly worrisome, as there are five different players who had more than five sacks last year. Bob Meier, who fills in for Stroud, led all AFC defensive tackles in sacks last season. Maurice Drew, the rookie from UCLA, gives Jacksonville someone who can contribute in multiple ways. The Jaguars are always a much better team when RB Fred Taylor is healthy, and here he is. Whether Terrell Owens has an impact is iffy; he hasn't really practiced all that much and the hamstring injury is not a bluff.

THE PLAY: JACKSONVILLE ***

CHICAGO (-3.5) at GREEN BAY --

When Lovie Smith took over as the Bears' coach, he specifically mentioned that one of his main priorities was beating the Green Bay Packers. Since then, his team has walked into Lambeau Field and scored eleven and seven-point wins. The Packers' Lambeau "aura" is only as strong as the players who can perpetuate it, and Brett Favre's challenge is to prove that he is more than a shell of his former self at this point. But the enthusiasm in his voice has tempered a bit. He realizes he's working with some banged-up running backs, middle-of-the-road receivers, and an offensive line that might just out his life in danger. If that line doesn't improve in a hurry, Favre might once again be forced to commit error after error by throwing into the teeth of the rock-ribbed Chicago stop unit, which, among other things, picked off 24 passes last year. True, we're not all that crazy about Rex Grossman, but if the Bears really need relief they can turn to veteran Brian Griese. If Favre blows up (or should we say when), the Pack has no one to turn to.

CHICAGO **

NEW ORLEANS (+3) at CLEVELAND --

The Saints went through an arduous training camp under Sean Payton, who gets high praise from some and heavy criticism from others. New Orleans wasn't particularly impressive during the pre-season, but it would be hard to imagine this offense, with Reggie Bush in the fold, Deuce McAllister back healthy, and a smarter alternative (Drew Brees) at quarterback, misfiring for very long. Payton has some plans to put both his thoroughbred runners in the backfield at once, and Bush is likely good for  big play or two. The problem with the Saints is that they won't be able to stop too many people. Rebuilding the linebacking corps and secondary is going to be a major undertaking. Only ten interceptions, 25 sacks and 28th in scoring defense - they're an inviting sight. Charlie Frye, Cleveland's second-year starter, has some more people at his disposal, as Kellen Winslow should finally contribute and Joe Jurevicius and Jerome Harrison arrive new. Can't really see an offensive bonanza, but it won't be a defensive battle either. The number here is workable.

THE PLAY: OVER 37 **

AUBURN (-20) at MISSISSIPPI STATE

-- Mississippi State had a miserable offensive outing against South Carolina, with just 161 total yards, eight completions, two interceptions, five sacks, and zero points. In fact, in the last three quarters, the Bulldogs never got closer than the South Carolina 45-yard line. Plus, they lost their QB when Michael Henig went down with a collarbone injury. Tray Rutland came in and went 6-15 with two INT's. Rutland starts again, but the redshirt freshman was not expected to be ready to play SEC football by this time. He's being forced into the breech, and Omarr Connor, last year's QB, is being forced to return to QB as a backup after moving to WR. So the receiver corps is thinned out as a result. There were encouraging signs in the MSU defense, but South Carolina, even under Steve Spurrier, doesn't possess the weaponry of Auburn. Though the Tigers' passing game will be slow in coming around, boy can they run? Kenny Irons gained 183 yards against Washington State last week, indicating he's in good form. and there are reinforcements behind him. As Mississippi State falters offensively, Auburn is going to wear down the tired defense in the second half. In the Bulldogs' last 12 games against Division 1-A competition, they've scored just 118 points (less than 10 ppg). Auburn has covered the last four meetings between these two, outscoring MSU by 29 ppg. Mississippi State head coach Sylvester Croom, who hasn't done much to improve this program, is now shuffling his offensive line around, but this is hardly the time to do it.

THE PLAY: AUBURN ****

PENN STATE (+7.5) at NOTRE DAME --

The home opener for Notre Dame always creates something of a circus atmosphere. That's an inspiration, but it's also a distraction for the Irish players. There's lots of ballyhoo,. and that's magnified this year because ND is touted for a possible national championship run. Notre Dame is the most public of public teams, especially if they look strong. They're potent, for sure, but Brady Quinn is going to encounter a variety of blitzes from the best set of linebackers in college football, led by All-Everything Paul Posluczny. Joe Paterno has some speed in the secondary, although extra help might be needed from time to time on 6'5" Jeff Samardzua. Yes, Notre Dame brought back all seniors in the secondary, and three seniors on the D-Line. And Penn State's offensive line is green. But Penn State's junior quarterback Anthony Morelli, a highly-recruited rocket arm, was mistake-free with three TD's against Akron in the opener, indicating he may be a comer. And he has a lot of balance in the receiving corps, which means Notre Dame underachieving defensive backs may not be able to execute double coverage as they did against Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson last week. This line looks a bit bloated; with his set of pass-catchers, Morelli can do enough to keep pace. And if a running game develops for the Nittany Lions, the mild upset is possible.

THE PLAY: PENN STATE ***

SMU (-5) at NORTH TEXAS --

North Texas had just six first downs, eight yards rushing, nine first downs and eleven penalties in its opening 56-7 loss at the hands of a Texas team that was actually playing "vanilla." Certainly some of that is to be excused, and the Mean Green should be able to run a little more effectively here with Jamario Thomas (the nation's rushing leader two years ago) and a veteran offensive line. But the quarterback position is a huge problem here. Matt Phillips, who was filling in for Daniel Meager (who was out with a concussion) drove the team to one first down and three net yards on six series, but he'll get the start again because coach Darryl Dickey didn't see any reason to make a change. With the possibility of three quarterbacks seeing action - Phillips, Meager (50% last year) and Woody Wilson - Dickey is simplifying the playbook, which is not necessarily a good sign. Meanwhile, SMU coach Pat Bennett feels his QB, Justin Willis, will be much more effective if he opened things up a little, so there's some expansion of the passing game expected. One must understand a couple of things - one is that when North Texas was winning four straight Sun Belt titles, it was getting much better quarterback play. Another is that SMU is no slouch, scoring a win over TCU, beating UAB and Houston on the road, and losing a close one to Tulsa. The Mustangs have their own stud running back in DeMyron Martin, and the idea is to spring him loose to open things up for Willis to exploit a UNT secondary that consists of freshmen and sophs. The Mean Green has had consistent problems in stepping up against even marginally better competition, going an awful 1-13 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.

THE PLAY: SMU ***

EASTERN MICHIGAN (+25.5) at MICHIGAN STATE --

Michigan State beat Idaho by only 10 points last week; that can't be completely attributed to the familiarity and friendship between John L. Smith and Idaho coach Dennis Erickson. It's likely Smith is going to demand a much more focused effort here, especially on the defensive side, as the Spartans allowed Idaho to convert 10 of 19 on third and fourth downs. EMU appeared to play well against Ball State, outgaining them with more first downs. But lost by 18 points because, for one thing, giving up the big play was a problem for them. Drew Stanton is one of the better QB's in the Big Ten, whose darkhorse Heisman hopes will hinge on how well his team does. He hit for 67% of his passes last year and completed 16 of 25 last week. Eastern Michigan is absent a consistent running game - quarterbacks Tyler Jones and Andy Schmitt combined for 197 of the 226 rushing yards they got against Ball State. Michigan State's speedy front much more likely to contain them. Then what? Jones has "happy feet" in the pocket, so it's not like he's going to lay a Michael Vick-like performance on the Spartans. But Stanton may do a "Tom Brady" against a very vulnerable secondary. EMU has 28 freshmen and sophomores in their two-deep chart, so they have a lot of work to do against teams representing a step up.

THE PLAY: MICHIGAN STATE **

OHIO STATE (+2.5) at TEXAS --

Neither Ohio State nor Texas showed the full playbook last week against Northern Illinois and North Texas, respectively. A couple of dynamics make this year's game a little different than last year's encounter - one is the departure of Vince Young and the arrival of Colt McCoy to lead the Longhorns attack. Another is Ohio State's loss of nine starters on defense. So who's task is harder? Well, McCoy had a storied high school career, but a game of this magnitude, without the benefit of getting all the snaps with the first team is pre-season practice, makes this an uphill climb for him. With drop-back types and without the run threat of Young, Texas was good, but not #1-caliber, with the likes of Chris Simms and Major Applewhite at the helm. Of course, when you lose the likes of AJ Hawk, Anthony Schlegel, Bobby Carpenter, Nate Salley, Ashton Yobouty and Donte Whitmer, you don't replace them immediately. But Ohio State brings back six of its top eight defensive linemen, and a potential All-American at linebacker in Marcus Freeman, as well as speedy defensive backs as usual. Expect that each team's running game will have rough sledding (both had about 3 ypc in last year's game), so the difference may lie in offensive playmakers. Ohio State has them, in QB Troy Smith (16 TD, 4 INT last year), RB Antonio Pittman (1360 YR) and do-everything WR Ted Ginn. Texas corner Tarell Brown sits this one out, putting extra pressure on the secondary.

THE PLAY: OHIO STATE **